Thursday, July 23, 2009

Roubini Sees Risk of ‘Double Dip’ Global Recession (Update2)

By Alison Sider

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- The global economy may fall back into a recession by late 2010 or 2011 because of rising government debt, higher oil prices and a lack of job growth, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the credit crisis.

A “perfect storm” of fiscal deficits, rising bond yields, “soaring” oil prices, weak profits and a stagnant labor market could “blow the recovering world economy back into a double-dip recession,” he wrote in a research note today. “It is getting more likely unless a clear exit strategy from the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus is outlined even before it is implemented.”

Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics and a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, predicted that the global economy will begin recovering near the end of 2009. The U.S. economy is likely to grow about 1 percent in the next two years, less than the 3 percent “trend,” he said.

Roubini based his short-term outlook on the worsening condition of the U.S. housing and labor markets, which he called “inextricably linked.” He said a “weak” job market will contribute to another 13 percent to 18 percent drop in house prices, bringing total declines nationally to as much as 45 percent from their peak.

As a result, Roubini predicted a new round of distress for a financial industry facing economic conditions that were worse than regulators factored into so-called stress tests earlier this year.

11% Unemployment

“The worst-case assumption in U.S. stress tests were that unemployment could average 10.3 percent next year,” Roubini wrote. “The reality is clearly going to be worse as the unemployment rate is likely to peak around 11 percent.”

Emerging markets may fare better than the industrial world because, “paradoxically,” many have better sounder economic foundations than more advanced nations.

“We are now closer than we were six months ago to the end of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the worst global recession in decades,” Roubini wrote. “But the road ahead will be very rough and bumpy.”

Earlier today, a National Association of Realtors report showed sales of existing homes in the U.S. rose in June for a third consecutive month. Purchases climbed 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.89 million, stronger than forecast and the highest level since October, the group said.

The report helped push the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 9,000 for the first time since January. The Dow jumped 188.03, or 2.1 percent, 9,069.29, the eighth day of advances in the past nine trading days.

No comments: