Fed Lowers Rate by a Quarter Point to 4.5 Percent (Correct)

By Craig Torres


Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 4.5 percent and signaled it's reluctant to lower borrowing costs further.

The second reduction in as many months should help the U.S. economy withstand the fallout from August's credit collapse, the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today in Washington. ``After this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth.''

The language ``has all the subtlety of a sledgehammer,'' said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``The FOMC has just stated unequivocally that `we think we are done easing.' Whether they are or not remains to be seen, but the message is loud and clear.''

Hours earlier, the Commerce Department said economic growth accelerated to an annual pace of 3.9 percent in the third quarter, the fastest in more than a year. The Fed statement also warned that higher energy and commodity prices may spur faster inflation.

Stocks fell in the minutes after the Fed announcement, before resuming their rally. Treasury notes declined and the dollar weakened.

The Fed acknowledged that ``economic growth was solid in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance.'' At the same time, ``the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction.''

Hoenig Dissents

Today's decision wasn't unanimous. Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig preferred no change, the first dissent since December.

The Fed also lowered the discount rate, the cost of direct loans to banks, by 25 basis points to 5 percent, from 5.25 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

``Unless the incoming data signal a net increase in downside growth risk, they think they are done,'' said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. ``Inflation worries -- oil and commodities -- just won't go away.''

Policy makers have now lowered their target rate for overnight loans between banks by 0.75 percentage point in six weeks, the most aggressive easing since the economy was emerging from its last recession in 2001.

Economists and former officials said before the meeting that the central bank would want to preserve leeway to take back the rate cuts should the economy weather the risks from credit and housing markets. Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said Oct. 5 the Fed must be ``nimble in adjusting policy to promote'' both growth and price stability.

Insurance

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, 53, and other officials in speeches this month have described the importance of taking out insurance to protect the economy from risks when the outlook is difficult to judge.

``Intuition suggests that stronger action by the central bank may be warranted to prevent particularly costly outcomes,'' Bernanke said in an Oct. 19 speech on recent economic research. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said Oct. 22 that ``at times we may need to adopt a risk management approach to policy'' to guard against threats to growth or inflation.

Consumer-price increases have slowed, while a falling dollar and rising oil costs threaten a renewed acceleration. The Fed's preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, probably rose 1.8 percent in September from a year ago, according to the median forecast. The Commerce Department reports the figures tomorrow.

The index remained below 2 percent from June to August. Bernanke, before taking the Fed's helm, said his ``comfort'' range for the measure was 1 percent to 2 percent.

Faster Expansion

The Commerce Department said today that the expansion picked up in the third quarter, though economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict a slowing this quarter. A private report showed companies hired 106,000 this month after creating 61,000 jobs in September.

The economy grew at a 3.9 percent annual rate in July to September, up from 3.8 percent in the previous three months, Commerce figures showed. It will slow to a 1.8 percent pace in the current period, according to the median estimate in a survey published Oct. 10.

Housing Downturn

Housing figures this month showed the industry has yet to find a bottom. A private survey yesterday showed home values in 20 metropolitan areas slid the most in at least six years. Sales of previously owned homes fell to the lowest level since National Association of Realtors began keeping records in 1999, and government figures recorded a 14-year low for housing starts.

Continued stress in credit markets may lengthen the housing recession and temper business investment plans. The world's largest banks and securities firms announced more than $30 billion of third-quarter charges.

Citigroup Inc. the biggest U.S. bank, said Oct. 15 that earnings fell 57 percent as loan losses increased. Merrill Lynch & Co. last week wrote down the value of subprime mortgages, asset-backed debt and leveraged loans by $8.4 billion.

The benchmark rate is now at the lowest level since January 2006. Bernanke took office the following month, and continued a series of rate increases that lifted the federal funds rate to 5.25 percent by June last year.